Plots of Cumulative Cases and Deaths

Source: New York Times

GGPLOt2 Plots of Daily Deaths and Cases

Source: European CDPC

Average US Covid-19 Deaths/day

## [1] 952.8577

Washington University

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

  • "Daily deaths is the best indicator of the progression of the pandemic, although there is generally a 17-21 day lag between infection and deaths.

  • Revised US COVID19 Deaths: 363,269 by Jan. 1, 2021 (Updated Oct. 2, 2020)

  • Revised US COVID19 Deaths: 363,269 by Feb. 1, 2021 (Updated Oct. 9, 2020)

  • Revised US COVID19 Deaths: 394,693 by Feb. 1, 2021 (Updated Oct. 10, 2020)

  • Revised US COVID19 Deaths: 389,087 by Feb. 1, 2021 (Updated Oct. 15,2020)

  • Revised US COVID19 Deaths: 385,611 by Feb. 1, 2021 (Updated Oct. 22, 2020)

  • Revised US COVID19 Deaths: 399,163 by Feb. 1, 2021 (Updated Oct. 29, 2020)

  • Revised US COVID19 Deaths: 399,163 by Feb. 1, 2021 (Updated Nov. 07, 2020)

  • Revised US COVID19 Deaths: 438,941 by Mar. 1, 2021 (Updated Nov. 14, 2020)

  • Revised US COVID19 Deaths: 470,974 by Mar. 1, 2021 (Updated Nov. 19, 2020)

US COVID-19 Deaths Guesstimate as of Oct. 17, 2020

  • Oct. 17, 2020 Fixed math error for average US Deaths per day
  • Dec. 15,2020 WU IHME Model.
  • My Projections = +/- 5%
  • Nov 1, 2020 = 233,706 : Actual: 229,672
  • Dec.1, 2020 = 261,895 : Range: 248800 - 274989
  • Jan.1, 2021 = 291151 : Range: 276593 - 305708
  • Feb. 1, 2021 = 317,482 : Range: 301607 - 333356
  • Mar, 1 2021 = 319528

Daily US COID-19 Cases

US COVID19 Projected Deaths: by Feb. 1, 2021

## [1] 1982.877
## [1] 330641.6

Just COVID19 Deaths by Feb. 1, 2021

US COVID19 Projected Deaths for Mar. 1, 2021

## [1] 1827.01
## [1] 350651.6